The English page - German 2020 2yo form working out

It is always one of the most interesting features of every new season in horse racing to see how the form of the previous year´s top performers work out. This of course is particularly true of the previous year´s juveniles who are now the new classic crop. In Germany, where most breeders have their main focus on the classics and as a general rule the locally-bred performers can show huge improvement from two to three, and often continue improving for years to come, it is quite often the case that the top three-year-olds had shown very little at two and very often never even ran at that age. In fact, four of the last ten German Derby winners never ran as juveniles. This is also partly due to the fact that the programme for 2yo´s in Germany is very limited in comparison with the situation in the U.K., France or Ireland, where there are many valuable events for that age group and commercial breeders find it more profitable to concentrate on precocious types that will pay their way at two.

However this season we seem to have the situation where the leading 2yo´s of 2020 have trained on and confirmed their first season form. Races for 2yo´s only take place in Germany from June onwards and the big events are all in the late autumn. The Preis des Winterfavoriten, run over a mile in Cologne in mid-October, and the Herzog von Ratibor-Renner, at Krefeld over 1700 metres in mid-November are usually the races with the biggest impact in the following season, and last week´s results confirm this. The Cologne race was last year won by Stall Lintec´s homebred Best of Lips (The Gurkha), trained by Andreas Suborics, who scored by half a length from Gestüt Höny-Hof´s homebred Sea of Sands (Sea The Stars) with Stal tmb´s homebred Mythico (Adlerflug) third. Mythico went on to win the Ratibor-Rennen and give his sire, who very sadly died at Easter, his first juvenile group winner.

Mythico, whose trainer Jean-Pierre Carvalho has an extremely strong hand for this season´s German Derby, was a very disappointing last of eight at Longchamp on his seasonal debut earlier this month, but put that flop behind him when he ran last Saturday in the Dr. Busch-Memorial at Krefeld, normally the first important classic trial of the season. Always well placed, he looked the likely winner when taking the lead early in the straight, but was run out of it close home by his old rival Best of Lips, who ran on really strongly from the distance to win by three parts of a length, with the rest well beaten. This was a very encouraging performance by them both and Best of Lips, a first group winner for his Coolmore-based sire, is clearly at present the best 3yo in Germany, with a current GAG rating of 95.5 (= international 111). The question of course is whether he will stay much further than a mile, which looks a bit doubtful. Trainer Suborics seems to share these doubts, and he has indicated that the French 2,000 Guineas could be his next target.

Mythico, whose sire Adlerflug had the first two in last year´s German Derby, should stay the trip but his problem is that there are possibly three better 3yo´s in the Carvalho stable. Winterfavorit runner-up Sea of Sands runs on Saturday in Munich (see below) and Sun of Gold on Sunday in France, while Sassoon (Soldier Hollow) won last Monday in Chantilly following an earlier win in this country. Andreas Suborics also has a strong team, and if Best of Lips does stick to a mile has another fancied candidate for the German Derby in Diamantis (a half-brother to German Oaks winner Diamanta by Golden Horn), who also scored at Chantilly on the Monday of this week. That was a good day for German-bred 3yo´s as another German Derby hopeful Alter Adler was an unlucky runner-up there in good company. This Adlerflug colt, a Stall Nizza homebred, seems certain to win before long, and is a possible runner in Cologne´s Union-Rennen in mid-June, as is Diamantis.

The Union-Rennen will no doubt be a key race in the run-up to the Derby, as is usually ther case. There are other trials of course, those at Baden-Baden (cancelled this year) and Hoppegarten being the most significant, but the 3yo race which has the next best influence on the Derby result is undoubtedly Munich´s Bavarian Classic, due to be un this Saturday. It has a field of seven likely runners, all of whom still have the Derby entry  and we could see a shake-up in the ante-post market for Hamburg after this weekend´s results. Carvalho´s Sea of Sands is the likely favourite, and as a son of Sea The Stars out of a mare by Peintre Celebre he looks certain to stay the full Derby trip. He will be making his seasonal debut, possibly a slight disadvantage here, while two of his opponents have already won in good style this season, both as it happens sons of Protectionist: Mirek Rulec´s Lambo, who scored at Fontarinebleau, and Peter Schiergen´s Liban, who won nicely in Cologne and comes from a stable in top form. The last two winners of this event were trained by Henk Grewe and he is now represented by Virginia Storm (Soldier Hollow), third in the Ratibor-Rennen when last seen, while the five previous editions were all won by trainer Andreas Wöhler, who now has two runners, both making their 2021 debut: Sir Vulcano (Polish Vulcano) and Wiesentau (Mukhadram), both of whom won their only starts last year and are the only unbeaten runners. This certainly a trace to be watched rather than to have a bet on, although Sea of Sands looks the likeliest winner.

The other races this weekend which could have a bearing on the German Derby are run France. Gestüt Schlenderhan´s  homebred Martial Eagle (Adlerflug) runs in the Group Two Prix Greffulhe at Saint-Cloud, and a prominent showing there will undoubtedly see his Hamburg odds tumbling. He is trained by Francis-Henri Graffard, who won last year´s German Derby with another Schlenderhan –bred son of Adlerflug, In Swoop.

There are still about a dozen foreign-trained entries in the Derby, mainly from France and the U.K., and no definite news about any of them actually running at Hamburg, but as he is German-owned and from last year´s winning team, he is probably one of the likelier ones. The following day at Longchamp Carvalho runs Sun of Gold in the Group Three Prix de l´Avre. Current betting on the Hamburg classic (RaceBets prices) sees Sun of Gold and Best of Lips joint favourites at 9-1, Diamantis at 11-1 and Martial Eagle, Virginia Storm and another French-trained entry Gagarin´s Moon (Sea The Moon) all at 14.1. Expect to see some changes on Monday morning. It is an advantage for the Hamburg race that it takes place a month later than the equivalent events in France and England, so that it is quite possible for horses to run in two Derby races. All this assumes of course that the races take place as scheduled and that the movement of racehorses will be free and easy in July.

The Munich race is not the only important classic trial this weekend. Cologne on Sunday stages the Group Three Schwarzgold-Rennen for 3yo fillies over a mile, and a major trial for the German 1,000 Guineas. This looks tricky, although Henk Grewe´s Noble Heidi (Intello) looks certain to start favourite; she won three of her four starts last year, including the important Preis der Winterkönigin. However it is probably not as cut and dried as it looks, and all the top trainers have runners.

David Conolly-Smith